Upgrade chance: work it out before you stake
The calculator below uses the same formula as the StandUpgrade server. The app still shows the chance before you confirm — rely on that number, since catalog prices can change.
Calculator
The consolation prize is picked from catalog prices.
How the chance is calculated
- The average return to the player is at most 90% of the stake. Without a consolation prize: chance = 90% × stake ÷ target price.
- For stakes from 200 G, a loss gives a consolation skin — the most expensive catalog item that costs no more than stake ÷ 25. It is part of the chance: chance = (0.9 × stake − prize) ÷ (target − prize).
- The result is rounded down to hundredths of a percent.
- The cap is 80% and the floor is 0.1%: a target below the floor cannot be selected.
- The target must cost at least 2% more than the stake.
The chance does not “build up” between attempts: every spin is independent of the previous ones. Never stake what you are not ready to lose.
FAQ
Why is my chance in the app slightly higher?
VIP and some promotions add a small bonus to the chance — it is shown separately on the upgrade screen. The calculator shows the base chance.
What is a top-up?
Part of your balance added to the stake. It simply increases the stake value — the formula is the same.
Can I verify the outcome?
Yes. The fair result is rolled first, and only then is the arrow guided to the sector. Every roll can be verified in the “Provably fair” section of the app.
More
How a Standoff 2 skin upgrade works · Standoff 2 skin catalog · Support